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Why AI-Designed Drugs Haven't Changed Medicine Yet

1The Promise and the Puzzle2From Molecule to Medicine: The Journey a Drug Must Survive3Where AI Actually Helps in the Pipeline4The Prediction Gap: When a Good Molecule Meets a Real Body5The Long, Expensive Road of Clinical Trials6Money, Incentives, and the Business of Drug Development7Regulation, Evidence, and Trust8What Would Have to Change
Money, Incentives, and the Business of Drug Development

Why patents are the engine, not the reward

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The thing to hold onto is the order of events. Patents and exclusivity are not a reward handed out after a drug succeeds; they are the reason the money is risked in the first place. Without a window of exclusive pricing, a competitor could copy the winner immediately, the expected return would collapse, and no one would fund the many failures that produce one success. That also explains why development clusters around conditions that can support high prices, even when the medical need lies elsewhere.
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Protection comes before the spending, not after

The exclusivity window is what allows a company to price a successful drug high enough to cover the cost of its failures. Remove it and the expected return collapses, so the funding never happens in the first place.

A consequence worth noticing

Because the incentive depends on price, diseases with large, wealthy markets attract more development than diseases with greater need but less ability to pay. This is a structural feature of the system, not a moral failing of any one company.

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